Combat Edge Intelligence

Ricco Rodriguez vs Tsuyoshi Kosaka

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

54-27-0Record28-21-2
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height5'11"
TBDReachTBD
225 lbsWeight214 lbs
American Fight ClubTeamAlliance-Square

What's at stake

Tsuyoshi Kosaka is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Ricco Rodriguez carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Ricco RodriguezNow 1591
If they win+13→ 1604
If they lose-11→ 1580
Tsuyoshi KosakaNow 1617
If they win+11→ 1628
If they lose-13→ 1604

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1598 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1643 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.85
Sig. strikes / min
0.71
51%
Strike accuracy
55%
1.15
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
17.82
61%
Strike defense
54%
2.30
Takedown avg.
1.78
39%
Takedown accuracy
100%
41%
Takedown defense
33%
0.97
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Ricco RodriguezTsuyoshi Kosaka
1600201720182019202020212022

Win method breakdown

17 (31%)
KO/TKO
9 (38%)
25 (46%)
Submission
6 (25%)
12 (22%)
Decision
9 (38%)

Combat Edge model read

Tsuyoshi Kosaka58%
Ricco Rodriguez 42%Elo baseline: 54%

The Combat Edge model makes Tsuyoshi Kosaka a 58% favorite over Ricco Rodriguez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).

Tsuyoshi Kosaka holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1617 to 1591, a 26-point edge.

Ricco Rodriguez enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Ricco Rodriguez finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Tsuyoshi Kosaka 63%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.