Combat Edge Intelligence

Rich Clementi vs Roan Carneiro

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

45-23-1Record21-13-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height5'11"
TBDReach74,0"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Team VoodooTeamAmerican Top Team Atlanta

What's at stake

Roan Carneiro is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Rich Clementi carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Rich ClementiNow 1631
If they win+14→ 1645
If they lose-10→ 1621
Roan CarneiroNow 1700
If they win+10→ 1710
If they lose-14→ 1686

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1585 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1635 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.56
Sig. strikes / min
1.46
37%
Strike accuracy
47%
2.56
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.82
61%
Strike defense
63%
1.92
Takedown avg.
3.05
42%
Takedown accuracy
42%
26%
Takedown defense
83%
1.10
Submission avg.
1.45

Trajectory

Rich ClementiRoan Carneiro
16501700201120122013201420152016201720182019

Win method breakdown

13 (29%)
KO/TKO
3 (14%)
23 (51%)
Submission
9 (43%)
9 (20%)
Decision
9 (43%)

Combat Edge model read

Roan Carneiro78%
Rich Clementi 22%Elo baseline: 60%

The Combat Edge model makes Roan Carneiro a 78% favorite over Rich Clementi in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).

Roan Carneiro holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1700 to 1631, a 69-point edge.

Rich Clementi enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Rich Clementi finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Roan Carneiro 57%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.