Rick Story vs Sam Patterson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
21-10-0Record15-3-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height6'4"
40,0"Reach78"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
MMA LabTeamTeam Crossface
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1756
If they lose-12→ 1732
If they win+16→ 1762
If they lose-16→ 1730
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1641 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1639 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Rick StorySam Patterson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Sam Patterson73%
Rick Story 27%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Sam Patterson a 73% favorite over Rick Story in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1744 vs 1746), separated by just 2 points.
Rick Story finishes 43% of wins inside the distance, Sam Patterson 93%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.