Rick Story vs Tarec Saffiedine
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
21-10-0Record16-7-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height5'9"
40,0"Reach70,0"
170 lbsWeight169 lbs
MMA LabTeamTristar Gym
What's at stake
Rick Story is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Tarec Saffiedine carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1753
If they lose-15→ 1729
If they win+20→ 1679
If they lose-12→ 1647
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1641 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1699 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Rick StoryTarec Saffiedine
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rick Story73%
Tarec Saffiedine 27%Elo baseline: 62%
The Combat Edge model makes Rick Story a 73% favorite over Tarec Saffiedine in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (62%).
Rick Story holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1744 to 1659, a 85-point edge.
Tarec Saffiedine enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Rick Story finishes 43% of wins inside the distance, Tarec Saffiedine 38%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.