Combat Edge Intelligence

Rick Story vs Thiago Alves

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Rick Story
us

Rick Story

“The Horror”

21-10-0WelterweightPFL

1744Good

Tale of the tape

21-10-0Record23-15-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height5'10"
40,0"Reach70,0"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
MMA LabTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

Rick Story is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Thiago Alves carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Rick StoryNow 1744
If they win+7→ 1751
If they lose-17→ 1727
Thiago AlvesNow 1572
If they win+17→ 1589
If they lose-7→ 1565

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1641 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1650 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.80
Sig. strikes / min
3.73
42%
Strike accuracy
42%
2.17
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.42
63%
Strike defense
63%
2.53
Takedown avg.
0.71
48%
Takedown accuracy
61%
63%
Takedown defense
63%
0.89
Submission avg.
0.30

Trajectory

Rick StoryThiago Alves
1600165017001750201720182019

Win method breakdown

4 (19%)
KO/TKO
13 (57%)
5 (24%)
Submission
1 (4%)
12 (57%)
Decision
9 (39%)

Combat Edge model read

Rick Story84%
Thiago Alves 16%Elo baseline: 73%

The Combat Edge model makes Rick Story a 84% favorite over Thiago Alves in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (73%).

Rick Story holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1744 to 1572, a 172-point edge.

Thiago Alves enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Rick Story finishes 43% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Alves 61%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.