Combat Edge Intelligence

Rinya Nakamura vs Tom Duquesnoy

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

10-1-0Record16-2-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'7"Height5'7"
68"Reach37,5"
136 lbsWeight135 lbs
FreelanceTeamJackson-Wink MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Rinya NakamuraNow 1710
If they win+16→ 1726
If they lose-16→ 1694
Tom DuquesnoyNow 1710
If they win+16→ 1726
If they lose-16→ 1694

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1596 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1550 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.53
Sig. strikes / min
3.83
55%
Strike accuracy
45%
1.38
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.30
67%
Strike defense
63%
3.72
Takedown avg.
0.42
90%
Takedown accuracy
25%
100%
Takedown defense
47%
1.65
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Rinya NakamuraTom Duquesnoy
165017002016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

6 (60%)
KO/TKO
8 (50%)
1 (10%)
Submission
4 (25%)
3 (30%)
Decision
4 (25%)

Combat Edge model read

Rinya Nakamura58%
Tom Duquesnoy 42%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Rinya Nakamura a 58% favorite over Tom Duquesnoy in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1710 vs 1710), separated by just 0 points.

Rinya Nakamura finishes 70% of wins inside the distance, Tom Duquesnoy 75%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.