Combat Edge Intelligence

Roan Carneiro vs Ryan LaFlare

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

21-13-0Record14-3-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'1"
74,0"Reach42,5"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
American Top Team AtlantaTeamLong Island MMA

What's at stake

Ryan LaFlare is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Roan Carneiro carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Roan CarneiroNow 1700
If they win+13→ 1713
If they lose-11→ 1689
Ryan LaFlareNow 1721
If they win+15→ 1736
If they lose-17→ 1704

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1635 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1668 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.46
Sig. strikes / min
2.89
47%
Strike accuracy
40%
1.82
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.86
63%
Strike defense
63%
3.05
Takedown avg.
2.13
42%
Takedown accuracy
45%
83%
Takedown defense
59%
1.45
Submission avg.
0.20

Trajectory

Roan CarneiroRyan LaFlare
170017502016201720182019

Win method breakdown

3 (14%)
KO/TKO
4 (29%)
9 (43%)
Submission
3 (21%)
9 (43%)
Decision
7 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Ryan LaFlare68%
Roan Carneiro 32%Elo baseline: 53%

The Combat Edge model makes Ryan LaFlare a 68% favorite over Roan Carneiro in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).

Ryan LaFlare holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1721 to 1700, a 21-point edge.

Roan Carneiro finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Ryan LaFlare 50%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.