Combat Edge Intelligence

Roan Carneiro vs Ryo Chonan

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Ryo Chonan
jp

Ryo Chonan

“Piranha”

22-13-0WelterweightTTF

1673Good

Tale of the tape

21-13-0Record22-13-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'9"
74,0"ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight169 lbs
American Top Team AtlantaTeamTribe Tokyo MMA· 1627 avg Elo · 3 rated

What's at stake

Roan Carneiro is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Ryo Chonan carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Roan CarneiroNow 1700
If they win+11→ 1711
If they lose-13→ 1687
Ryo ChonanNow 1673
If they win+13→ 1686
If they lose-11→ 1662

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1635 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1538 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.46
Sig. strikes / min
2.53
47%
Strike accuracy
38%
1.82
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
6.48
63%
Strike defense
61%
3.05
Takedown avg.
0.50
42%
Takedown accuracy
50%
83%
Takedown defense
39%
1.45
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Roan CarneiroRyo Chonan
16501700201120122013201420152016201720182019

Win method breakdown

3 (14%)
KO/TKO
8 (36%)
9 (43%)
Submission
1 (5%)
9 (43%)
Decision
13 (59%)

Combat Edge model read

Roan Carneiro60%
Ryo Chonan 40%Elo baseline: 54%

The Combat Edge model makes Roan Carneiro a 60% favorite over Ryo Chonan in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).

Roan Carneiro holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1700 to 1673, a 27-point edge.

Ryo Chonan enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Roan Carneiro finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Ryo Chonan 41%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.