Combat Edge Intelligence

Roan Carneiro vs Stephen Thompson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

21-13-0Record17-9-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'0"
74,0"Reach75"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
American Top Team AtlantaTeamTeam Upstate Karate

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Roan CarneiroNow 1700
If they win+12→ 1712
If they lose-12→ 1688
Stephen ThompsonNow 1702
If they win+16→ 1718
If they lose-16→ 1686

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1635 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1749 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.46
Sig. strikes / min
4.11
47%
Strike accuracy
46%
1.82
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.02
63%
Strike defense
55%
3.05
Takedown avg.
0.25
42%
Takedown accuracy
42%
83%
Takedown defense
63%
1.45
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Roan CarneiroStephen Thompson
1700175020182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

3 (14%)
KO/TKO
8 (47%)
9 (43%)
Submission
1 (6%)
9 (43%)
Decision
8 (47%)

Combat Edge model read

Stephen Thompson67%
Roan Carneiro 33%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Stephen Thompson a 67% favorite over Roan Carneiro in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1700 vs 1702), separated by just 2 points.

Stephen Thompson enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Roan Carneiro finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Stephen Thompson 53%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.