Roan Carneiro vs Stephen Thompson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
21-13-0Record17-9-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'0"
74,0"Reach75"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
American Top Team AtlantaTeamTeam Upstate Karate
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1714
If they lose-12→ 1690
If they win+16→ 1718
If they lose-16→ 1686
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1643 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1750 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Roan CarneiroStephen Thompson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Stephen Thompson69%
Roan Carneiro 31%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Stephen Thompson a 69% favorite over Roan Carneiro in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Roan Carneiro's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1702 vs 1702), separated by just 0 points.
Stephen Thompson enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Roan Carneiro finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Stephen Thompson 53%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.