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Combat Edge Intelligence

Roan Carneiro vs Tony DeSouza

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Official bout pages

New comparison

This page compares both fighters across their careers. Event-specific previews, results, round stats, and bout facts live on the separate official Fight page for each meeting.

Tony DeSouza
pe

Tony DeSouza

“The Peruvian Savage”

11-4-0Welterweight

1657Good

Tale of the tape

21-13-0Record11-4-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'0"
74,0"ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight169 lbs
American Top Team AtlantaTeamMillennia MMA

What's at stake

Roan Carneiro is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Tony DeSouza carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Roan CarneiroNow 1702
If they win+10→ 1712
If they lose-14→ 1688
Tony DeSouzaNow 1657
If they win+18→ 1675
If they lose-14→ 1643

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1643 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1555 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

1.46
Sig. strikes / min
1.12
47%
Strike accuracy
52%
1.82
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.57
63%
Strike defense
42%
3.05
Takedown avg.
2.25
42%
Takedown accuracy
43%
83%
Takedown defense
40%
1.45
Submission avg.
1.50

Trajectory

Roan CarneiroTony DeSouza
165017002013201420152016201720182019

Win method breakdown

3 (14%)
KO/TKO
2 (18%)
9 (43%)
Submission
6 (55%)
9 (43%)
Decision
3 (27%)

Combat Edge model read

Roan Carneiro77%
Tony DeSouza 23%Elo baseline: 56%

The Combat Edge model makes Roan Carneiro a 77% favorite over Tony DeSouza in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).

Roan Carneiro holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1702 to 1657, a 45-point edge.

Roan Carneiro finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Tony DeSouza 73%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.