Combat Edge Intelligence

Robbie Lawler vs Steve Berger

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Steve Berger
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Steve Berger

“The Red Nose Pitbull”

20-23-2WelterweightRTP

1473Average

Tale of the tape

30-16-0Record20-23-2
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'10"
74"ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamBerger MMA

What's at stake

Robbie Lawler is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +3 while a loss costs more — Steve Berger carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Robbie LawlerNow 1788
If they win+3→ 1791
If they lose-21→ 1767
Steve BergerNow 1473
If they win+21→ 1494
If they lose-3→ 1470

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1760 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1479 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.85
Sig. strikes / min
0.62
47%
Strike accuracy
23%
4.67
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.60
59%
Strike defense
36%
0.65
Takedown avg.
0.72
64%
Takedown accuracy
33%
65%
Takedown defense
17%
0
Submission avg.
2.15

Trajectory

Robbie LawlerSteve Berger
150016001700180020102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023

Win method breakdown

22 (73%)
KO/TKO
2 (10%)
1 (3%)
Submission
14 (70%)
7 (23%)
Decision
4 (20%)

Combat Edge model read

Robbie Lawler84%
Steve Berger 16%Elo baseline: 86%

The Combat Edge model makes Robbie Lawler a 84% favorite over Steve Berger in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (86%).

Robbie Lawler holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1788 to 1473, a 315-point edge.

Steve Berger enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Robbie Lawler finishes 77% of wins inside the distance, Steve Berger 80%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.