Combat Edge Intelligence

Robbie Lawler vs Tiki Ghosn

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

30-16-0Record10-7-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'10"
74"ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight169 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeam

What's at stake

Robbie Lawler is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +5 while a loss costs more — Tiki Ghosn carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Robbie LawlerNow 1788
If they win+5→ 1793
If they lose-19→ 1769
Tiki GhosnNow 1540
If they win+26→ 1566
If they lose-6→ 1534

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1760 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1546 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.85
Sig. strikes / min
2.78
47%
Strike accuracy
47%
4.67
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.94
59%
Strike defense
58%
0.65
Takedown avg.
0.41
64%
Takedown accuracy
50%
65%
Takedown defense
62%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Robbie LawlerTiki Ghosn
15001600170018002008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023

Win method breakdown

22 (73%)
KO/TKO
2 (20%)
1 (3%)
Submission
2 (20%)
7 (23%)
Decision
6 (60%)

Combat Edge model read

Robbie Lawler83%
Tiki Ghosn 17%Elo baseline: 81%

The Combat Edge model makes Robbie Lawler a 83% favorite over Tiki Ghosn in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (81%).

Robbie Lawler holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1788 to 1540, a 248-point edge.

Tiki Ghosn enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Robbie Lawler finishes 77% of wins inside the distance, Tiki Ghosn 40%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.