Robert Whittaker vs Stephen Thompson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
27-9-0Record17-9-1
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height6'0"
73"Reach75"
186 lbsWeight170 lbs
PMA Super Martial ArtsTeamTeam Upstate Karate
What's at stake
Robert Whittaker is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Stephen Thompson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1762
If they lose-14→ 1738
If they win+18→ 1720
If they lose-14→ 1688
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1752 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1749 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Robert WhittakerStephen Thompson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Robert Whittaker92%
Stephen Thompson 8%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Robert Whittaker a 92% favorite over Stephen Thompson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Robert Whittaker holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1752 to 1702, a 50-point edge.
Stephen Thompson enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Robert Whittaker finishes 59% of wins inside the distance, Stephen Thompson 53%.
Stephen Thompson carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.