Combat Edge Intelligence

Rodolfo Bellato vs Thiago Santos

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

13-3-1Record22-13-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'2"
77"Reach 76"
205 lbsWeight241 lbs
Knockout SquadTeamTeam Marreta

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Rodolfo BellatoNow 1678
If they win+16→ 1694
If they lose-16→ 1662
Thiago SantosNow 1674
If they win+12→ 1686
If they lose-12→ 1662

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1599 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1726 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

5.37
Sig. strikes / min
3.72
60%
Strike accuracy
48%
5.86
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.57
47%
Strike defense
54%
1.38
Takedown avg.
0.88
35%
Takedown accuracy
33%
94%
Takedown defense
66%
0.23
Submission avg.
0.06

Trajectory

Rodolfo BellatoThiago Santos
1600165017002023202420252026

Win method breakdown

8 (62%)
KO/TKO
15 (68%)
4 (31%)
Submission
1 (5%)
1 (8%)
Decision
6 (27%)

Combat Edge model read

Rodolfo Bellato70%
Thiago Santos 30%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Rodolfo Bellato a 70% favorite over Thiago Santos in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1678 vs 1674), separated by just 4 points.

Thiago Santos enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Rodolfo Bellato finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Santos 73%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.