Combat Edge Intelligence

Rodrigo Nascimento vs Stefan Struve

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-3-0Record29-13-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height7'0"
80"Reach84,5"
265 lbsWeight265 lbs
American Top TeamTeamTeam Schrijber

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Rodrigo NascimentoNow 1666
If they win+16→ 1682
If they lose-16→ 1650
Stefan StruveNow 1664
If they win+12→ 1676
If they lose-12→ 1652

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1653 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1696 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.71
Sig. strikes / min
3.12
47%
Strike accuracy
47%
4.34
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.04
45%
Strike defense
47%
1.02
Takedown avg.
0.56
38%
Takedown accuracy
47%
61%
Takedown defense
56%
0.51
Submission avg.
1.68

Trajectory

Rodrigo NascimentoStefan Struve
165017002019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

2 (18%)
KO/TKO
8 (29%)
6 (55%)
Submission
18 (64%)
3 (27%)
Decision
2 (7%)

Combat Edge model read

Rodrigo Nascimento64%
Stefan Struve 36%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Rodrigo Nascimento a 64% favorite over Stefan Struve in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1666 vs 1664), separated by just 2 points.

Stefan Struve enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Rodrigo Nascimento finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Stefan Struve 93%.

Stefan Struve carries a 4-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.