Combat Edge Intelligence

Rodrigo Ruas vs Tony Fryklund

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

4-5-1Record14-9-1
MiddleweightDivisionLightweight
TBDHeight6'0"
TBDReachTBD
185 lbsWeight155 lbs
Ruas Vale TudoTeamMiletich Fighting Systems

What's at stake

Tony Fryklund is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Rodrigo Ruas carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Rodrigo RuasNow 1458
If they win+31→ 1489
If they lose-17→ 1441
Tony FryklundNow 1569
If they win+11→ 1580
If they lose-21→ 1548

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1546 · 8 fightsPre-fight Elo1545 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.28
Sig. strikes / min
6.30
35%
Strike accuracy
59%
7
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
19.97
41%
Strike defense
44%
0
Takedown avg.
0
TBD
Takedown accuracy
0%
0%
Takedown defense
67%
0
Submission avg.
1.48

Trajectory

Rodrigo RuasTony Fryklund
145015001550200820092010201120122013

Win method breakdown

1 (25%)
KO/TKO
7 (50%)
1 (25%)
Submission
7 (50%)
2 (50%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Tony Fryklund57%
Rodrigo Ruas 43%Elo baseline: 65%

The Combat Edge model makes Tony Fryklund a 57% favorite over Rodrigo Ruas in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (65%).

Tony Fryklund holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1569 to 1458, a 111-point edge.

Rodrigo Ruas finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Tony Fryklund 100%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.