Combat Edge Intelligence

Roger Gracie vs Tim Kennedy

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

8-2-0Record18-6-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'4"Height5'11"
TBDReach74,0"
186 lbsWeight185 lbs
Evolve MMATeamJackson-Wink MMA

What's at stake

Tim Kennedy is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Roger Gracie carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Roger GracieNow 1681
If they win+18→ 1699
If they lose-14→ 1667
Tim KennedyNow 1730
If they win+14→ 1744
If they lose-18→ 1712

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1621 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1686 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

0.80
Sig. strikes / min
2.78
41%
Strike accuracy
48%
6.73
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.84
61%
Strike defense
62%
2
Takedown avg.
2.58
50%
Takedown accuracy
35%
60%
Takedown defense
71%
0
Submission avg.
0.71

Trajectory

Roger GracieTim Kennedy
1650170017501800201420152016

Win method breakdown

1 (13%)
KO/TKO
8 (44%)
6 (75%)
Submission
6 (33%)
1 (13%)
Decision
4 (22%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Roger Gracie and Tim Kennedy within a point of even.

Tim Kennedy holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1730 to 1681, a 49-point edge.

Roger Gracie enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Tim Kennedy enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Roger Gracie finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Tim Kennedy 78%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.