Roger Gracie vs Tom Breese
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
8-2-0Record21-8-0
MiddleweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'4"Height6'3"
TBDReach73.5"
186 lbsWeight205 lbs
Evolve MMATeamTeam Renegade· 1737 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1697
If they lose-16→ 1665
If they win+12→ 1694
If they lose-12→ 1670
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1621 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1581 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Roger GracieTom Breese
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Tom Breese67%
Roger Gracie 33%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Tom Breese a 67% favorite over Roger Gracie in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1681 vs 1682), separated by just 1 points.
Roger Gracie enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Roger Gracie finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Tom Breese 90%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.