Roger Zapata vs Rustam Serbiev
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
4-2-0Record9-6-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'11"
TBDReach69"
170 lbsWeight169 lbs
Bruno Tostes BJJTeamAmerican Kickboxing Academy· 1639 avg Elo · 6 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1571
If they lose-24→ 1523
If they win+16→ 1562
If they lose-16→ 1530
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1502 · 6 fightsPre-fight Elo1508 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Roger ZapataRustam Serbiev
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rustam Serbiev64%
Roger Zapata 36%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Rustam Serbiev a 64% favorite over Roger Zapata in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Roger Zapata's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1547 vs 1546), separated by just 1 points.
Roger Zapata finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Rustam Serbiev 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.