Combat Edge Intelligence

Roger Zapata vs Said-Khusein Akhyadov

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

4-2-0Record9-5-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'8"
TBDReach-
170 lbsWeight160 lbs
Bruno Tostes BJJTeamStallion Gym

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Roger ZapataNow 1547
If they win+24→ 1571
If they lose-24→ 1523
Said-Khusein AkhyadovNow 1549
If they win+16→ 1565
If they lose-16→ 1533

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1502 · 6 fightsPre-fight Elo1511 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.60
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
52%
Strike accuracy
TBD
2.13
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
36%
Strike defense
TBD
0
Takedown avg.
TBD
0%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
82%
Takedown defense
TBD
1.39
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Roger ZapataSaid-Khusein Akhyadov
150015502014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (75%)
KO/TKO
5 (56%)
0 (0%)
Submission
0 (0%)
1 (25%)
Decision
4 (44%)

Combat Edge model read

Said-Khusein Akhyadov70%
Roger Zapata 30%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Said-Khusein Akhyadov a 70% favorite over Roger Zapata in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1547 vs 1549), separated by just 2 points.

Said-Khusein Akhyadov enters on a 4-fight win streak.

Roger Zapata finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Said-Khusein Akhyadov 56%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.