Combat Edge Intelligence

Roggers Souza vs Sean Alvarez

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

15-10-0Record4-3-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'0"
79"ReachTBD
265 lbsWeight235 lbs
Alcateia MMATeamRenzo Gracie Jiu-Jitsu

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Roggers SouzaNow 1530
If they win+16→ 1546
If they lose-16→ 1514
Sean AlvarezNow 1528
If they win+24→ 1552
If they lose-24→ 1504

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1560 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1550 · 7 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
0.89
TBD
Strike accuracy
38%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.25
TBD
Strike defense
48%
TBD
Takedown avg.
0
TBD
Takedown accuracy
0%
TBD
Takedown defense
0%
TBD
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Roggers SouzaSean Alvarez
155016002002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

10 (67%)
KO/TKO
1 (33%)
4 (27%)
Submission
1 (33%)
1 (7%)
Decision
1 (33%)

Combat Edge model read

Roggers Souza57%
Sean Alvarez 43%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Roggers Souza a 57% favorite over Sean Alvarez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1530 vs 1528), separated by just 2 points.

Roggers Souza enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Roggers Souza finishes 93% of wins inside the distance, Sean Alvarez 67%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.