Ronaldo Souza vs Tim Boetsch
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
26-10-0Record21-13-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height6'0"
72"Reach74,0"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Fusion X-Cel PerformanceTeamTeam Irish
What's at stake
Ronaldo Souza is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Tim Boetsch carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+8→ 1757
If they lose-16→ 1733
If they win+16→ 1647
If they lose-8→ 1623
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1726 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1692 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ronaldo SouzaTim Boetsch
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ronaldo Souza72%
Tim Boetsch 28%Elo baseline: 66%
The Combat Edge model makes Ronaldo Souza a 72% favorite over Tim Boetsch in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (66%).
Ronaldo Souza holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1749 to 1631, a 118-point edge.
Ronaldo Souza enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Tim Boetsch enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Ronaldo Souza finishes 85% of wins inside the distance, Tim Boetsch 76%.
Tim Boetsch carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.