Ronny Markes vs Thiago Santos
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-10-0Record22-13-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'1"Height6'2"
TBDReach 76"
245 lbsWeight241 lbs
Nova Uniao RMTeamTeam Marreta
What's at stake
Thiago Santos is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Ronny Markes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1600
If they lose-9→ 1576
If they win+9→ 1683
If they lose-15→ 1659
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1522 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1727 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Ronny MarkesThiago Santos
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Thiago Santos81%
Ronny Markes 19%Elo baseline: 63%
The Combat Edge model makes Thiago Santos a 81% favorite over Ronny Markes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).
Thiago Santos holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1674 to 1585, a 89-point edge.
Thiago Santos enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Ronny Markes finishes 70% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Santos 73%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.