Combat Edge Intelligence

Ronny Markes vs Thiago Santos

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

23-10-0Record22-13-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'1"Height6'2"
TBDReach 76"
245 lbsWeight241 lbs
Nova Uniao RMTeamTeam Marreta

What's at stake

Thiago Santos is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Ronny Markes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Ronny MarkesNow 1579
If they win+16→ 1595
If they lose-8→ 1571
Thiago SantosNow 1694
If they win+8→ 1702
If they lose-16→ 1678

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1507 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1743 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.17
Sig. strikes / min
3.72
53%
Strike accuracy
48%
2.43
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.57
46%
Strike defense
54%
3.13
Takedown avg.
0.88
40%
Takedown accuracy
33%
100%
Takedown defense
66%
0.52
Submission avg.
0.06

Trajectory

Ronny MarkesThiago Santos
155016001650170017502021202220232024

Win method breakdown

9 (39%)
KO/TKO
15 (68%)
7 (30%)
Submission
1 (5%)
7 (30%)
Decision
6 (27%)

Combat Edge model read

Thiago Santos61%
Ronny Markes 39%Elo baseline: 66%

The Combat Edge model makes Thiago Santos a 61% favorite over Ronny Markes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (66%).

Thiago Santos holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1694 to 1579, a 115-point edge.

Thiago Santos enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Ronny Markes finishes 70% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Santos 73%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.