Combat Edge Intelligence

Rory MacDonald vs Sam Patterson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

23-10-1Record15-3-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height6'4"
76.00Reach78"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Tristar GymTeamTeam Crossface

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Rory MacDonaldNow 1741
If they win+12→ 1753
If they lose-12→ 1729
Sam PattersonNow 1746
If they win+16→ 1762
If they lose-16→ 1730

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1740 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1639 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.75
Sig. strikes / min
2.62
42%
Strike accuracy
38%
2.80
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.06
62%
Strike defense
50%
1.77
Takedown avg.
0.82
48%
Takedown accuracy
0%
89%
Takedown defense
33%
0.42
Submission avg.
1.64

Trajectory

Rory MacDonaldSam Patterson
17001750180020192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

7 (30%)
KO/TKO
7 (47%)
9 (39%)
Submission
7 (47%)
7 (30%)
Decision
1 (7%)

Combat Edge model read

Sam Patterson70%
Rory MacDonald 30%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Sam Patterson a 70% favorite over Rory MacDonald in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1741 vs 1746), separated by just 5 points.

Rory MacDonald enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Rory MacDonald finishes 70% of wins inside the distance, Sam Patterson 93%.

Sam Patterson carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.