Combat Edge Intelligence

Rory MacDonald vs Stephen Thompson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

23-10-1Record17-9-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height6'0"
76.00Reach75"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Tristar GymTeamTeam Upstate Karate

What's at stake

Rory MacDonald is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Stephen Thompson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Rory MacDonaldNow 1741
If they win+11→ 1752
If they lose-13→ 1728
Stephen ThompsonNow 1702
If they win+18→ 1720
If they lose-14→ 1688

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1740 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1749 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.75
Sig. strikes / min
4.11
42%
Strike accuracy
46%
2.80
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.02
62%
Strike defense
55%
1.77
Takedown avg.
0.25
48%
Takedown accuracy
42%
89%
Takedown defense
63%
0.42
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Rory MacDonaldStephen Thompson
1700175018002019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

7 (30%)
KO/TKO
8 (47%)
9 (39%)
Submission
1 (6%)
7 (30%)
Decision
8 (47%)

Combat Edge model read

Rory MacDonald75%
Stephen Thompson 25%Elo baseline: 56%

The Combat Edge model makes Rory MacDonald a 75% favorite over Stephen Thompson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).

Rory MacDonald holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1741 to 1702, a 39-point edge.

Rory MacDonald enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Stephen Thompson enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Rory MacDonald finishes 70% of wins inside the distance, Stephen Thompson 53%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.