Rory MacDonald vs Tarec Saffiedine
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-10-1Record16-7-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'9"
76.00Reach70,0"
170 lbsWeight169 lbs
Tristar GymTeamTristar Gym
What's at stake
Rory MacDonald is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Tarec Saffiedine carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1735
If they lose-14→ 1711
If they win+19→ 1678
If they lose-13→ 1646
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1729 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1699 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Rory MacDonaldTarec Saffiedine
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rory MacDonald74%
Tarec Saffiedine 26%Elo baseline: 59%
The Combat Edge model makes Rory MacDonald a 74% favorite over Tarec Saffiedine in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).
Rory MacDonald holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1725 to 1659, a 66-point edge.
Rory MacDonald enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Tarec Saffiedine enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Rory MacDonald finishes 70% of wins inside the distance, Tarec Saffiedine 38%.
Rory MacDonald carries a 6-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.