Combat Edge Intelligence

Rory MacDonald vs Tarec Saffiedine

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

23-10-1Record16-7-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'9"
76.00Reach70,0"
170 lbsWeight169 lbs
Tristar GymTeamTristar Gym

What's at stake

Rory MacDonald is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Tarec Saffiedine carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Rory MacDonaldNow 1741
If they win+9→ 1750
If they lose-15→ 1726
Tarec SaffiedineNow 1659
If they win+20→ 1679
If they lose-12→ 1647

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1740 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1699 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.75
Sig. strikes / min
4.05
42%
Strike accuracy
48%
2.80
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.06
62%
Strike defense
62%
1.77
Takedown avg.
0.52
48%
Takedown accuracy
36%
89%
Takedown defense
85%
0.42
Submission avg.
0.13

Trajectory

Rory MacDonaldTarec Saffiedine
16501700175018002015201620172018201920202021

Win method breakdown

7 (30%)
KO/TKO
1 (6%)
9 (39%)
Submission
5 (31%)
7 (30%)
Decision
10 (63%)

Combat Edge model read

Rory MacDonald81%
Tarec Saffiedine 19%Elo baseline: 62%

The Combat Edge model makes Rory MacDonald a 81% favorite over Tarec Saffiedine in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (62%).

Rory MacDonald holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1741 to 1659, a 82-point edge.

Rory MacDonald enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Tarec Saffiedine enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Rory MacDonald finishes 70% of wins inside the distance, Tarec Saffiedine 38%.

Rory MacDonald carries a 6-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.