Rory MacDonald vs Tyron Woodley
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-10-1Record19-7-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'9"
76.00Reach74"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Tristar GymTeamAmerican Top Team Evolution
What's at stake
Tyron Woodley is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Rory MacDonald carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1754
If they lose-11→ 1730
If they win+11→ 1785
If they lose-13→ 1761
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1740 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1761 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Rory MacDonaldTyron Woodley
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rory MacDonald58%
Tyron Woodley 42%Elo baseline: 45%
The Combat Edge model makes Rory MacDonald a 58% favorite over Tyron Woodley in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Tyron Woodley's way (45%).
Tyron Woodley holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1774 to 1741, a 33-point edge.
Rory MacDonald enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Tyron Woodley enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Rory MacDonald finishes 70% of wins inside the distance, Tyron Woodley 63%.
Rory MacDonald and Tyron Woodley share 1 common opponent: Stephen Thompson.
Rory MacDonald carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.