Roy Nelson vs Stefan Struve
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-20-0Record29-13-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'0"Height7'0"
72,0"Reach84,5"
249 lbsWeight265 lbs
Country ClubTeamTeam Schrijber
What's at stake
Stefan Struve is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Roy Nelson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1639
If they lose-11→ 1615
If they win+11→ 1675
If they lose-13→ 1651
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1669 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1696 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Roy NelsonStefan Struve
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Stefan Struve78%
Roy Nelson 22%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Stefan Struve a 78% favorite over Roy Nelson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Stefan Struve holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1664 to 1626, a 38-point edge.
Roy Nelson enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Stefan Struve enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Roy Nelson finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Stefan Struve 93%.
Roy Nelson and Stefan Struve share 3 common opponents: Alexander Volkov, Antonio Silva and Jared Rosholt.
Stefan Struve carries a 12-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.