Roy Nelson vs Stipe Miocic
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-20-0Record20-5-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'0"Height6'4"
72,0"Reach 80"
249 lbsWeight234 lbs
Country ClubTeamStrong Style Fight Team
What's at stake
Stipe Miocic is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Roy Nelson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1643
If they lose-7→ 1619
If they win+10→ 1775
If they lose-22→ 1743
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1669 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1802 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Roy NelsonStipe Miocic
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Stipe Miocic82%
Roy Nelson 18%Elo baseline: 69%
The Combat Edge model makes Stipe Miocic a 82% favorite over Roy Nelson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (69%).
Stipe Miocic holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1765 to 1626, a 139-point edge.
Roy Nelson enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Stipe Miocic enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Roy Nelson finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Stipe Miocic 75%.
Stipe Miocic carries a 8-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.