Combat Edge Intelligence

Rulon Gardner vs Łukasz Brzeski

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

1-0-0Record9-7-1
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'2"
TBDReach78"
264 lbsWeight236 lbs
Team QuestTeamNKSW Holy Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Rulon GardnerNow 1532
If they win+24→ 1556
If they lose-24→ 1508
Łukasz BrzeskiNow 1535
If they win+16→ 1551
If they lose-16→ 1519

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1616 · 1 fightsPre-fight Elo1644 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
5.02
TBD
Strike accuracy
50%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.68
TBD
Strike defense
55%
TBD
Takedown avg.
0.43
TBD
Takedown accuracy
33%
TBD
Takedown defense
37%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.43

Trajectory

Rulon GardnerŁukasz Brzeski
15501600200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

0 (0%)
KO/TKO
5 (56%)
0 (0%)
Submission
2 (22%)
1 (100%)
Decision
2 (22%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Rulon Gardner and Łukasz Brzeski within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1532 vs 1535), separated by just 3 points.

Łukasz Brzeski enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Łukasz Brzeski 78%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.