Ruslan Shamilov vs Serghei Spivac
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Serghei Spivac70%
Ruslan Shamilov 30%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Serghei Spivac a 70% favorite over Ruslan Shamilov in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Ruslan Shamilov's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1715 vs 1709), separated by just 6 points.
Ruslan Shamilov enters on a 7-fight win streak.
Ruslan Shamilov finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Serghei Spivac 83%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
18-5-0Record18-7-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'1"Height6'3"
-Reach 78"
207 lbsWeight256 lbs
TeamPolar Bear Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1731
If they lose-16→ 1699
If they win+16→ 1725
If they lose-16→ 1693
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1562 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1725 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Ruslan ShamilovSerghei Spivac