Combat Edge Intelligence

Rustam Khabilov vs Yancy Medeiros

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

24-4-0Record16-9-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'8"Height5'10"
40,5"Reach75"
170 lbsWeight165 lbs
Jackson-Wink MMATeamTeam Hakuilua

What's at stake

Rustam Khabilov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Yancy Medeiros carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Rustam KhabilovNow 1785
If they win+6→ 1791
If they lose-18→ 1767
Yancy MedeirosNow 1610
If they win+23→ 1633
If they lose-9→ 1601

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1706 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1672 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.98
Sig. strikes / min
4.36
34%
Strike accuracy
37%
2.16
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.67
66%
Strike defense
47%
3.95
Takedown avg.
0.33
42%
Takedown accuracy
17%
61%
Takedown defense
74%
0.09
Submission avg.
0.65

Trajectory

Rustam KhabilovYancy Medeiros
1600165017001750180020172018201920202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

4 (17%)
KO/TKO
8 (50%)
5 (21%)
Submission
4 (25%)
15 (63%)
Decision
4 (25%)

Combat Edge model read

Rustam Khabilov84%
Yancy Medeiros 16%Elo baseline: 73%

The Combat Edge model makes Rustam Khabilov a 84% favorite over Yancy Medeiros in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (73%).

Rustam Khabilov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1785 to 1610, a 175-point edge.

Rustam Khabilov finishes 38% of wins inside the distance, Yancy Medeiros 75%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.