Ryan Bader vs Vinny Magalhaes
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
31-8-0Record19-12-0
HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height6'3"
74,0"ReachTBD
232 lbsWeight205 lbs
Power MMA TeamTeamSyndicate MMA
What's at stake
Ryan Bader is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +4 while a loss costs more — Vinny Magalhaes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+4→ 1830
If they lose-20→ 1806
If they win+26→ 1582
If they lose-6→ 1550
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1749 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1650 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Ryan BaderVinny Magalhaes
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ryan Bader68%
Vinny Magalhaes 32%Elo baseline: 83%
The Combat Edge model makes Ryan Bader a 68% favorite over Vinny Magalhaes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (83%).
Ryan Bader holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1826 to 1556, a 270-point edge.
Vinny Magalhaes enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Ryan Bader finishes 52% of wins inside the distance, Vinny Magalhaes 95%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.