Ryan Gerena vs Simeon Thoresen
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
4-1-0Record17-6-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height6'1"
-ReachTBD
171 lbsWeight170 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1608
If they lose-24→ 1560
If they win+16→ 1600
If they lose-16→ 1568
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1509 · 5 fightsPre-fight Elo1511 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ryan GerenaSimeon Thoresen
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ryan Gerena60%
Simeon Thoresen 40%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Ryan Gerena a 60% favorite over Simeon Thoresen in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1584 vs 1584), separated by just 0 points.
Ryan Gerena enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Simeon Thoresen enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Ryan Gerena finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Simeon Thoresen 94%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.