Ryan Jensen vs Wilson Gouveia
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
21-8-0Record14-8-0
MiddleweightDivisionHeavyweight
5'10"Height6'2"
TBDReachTBD
175 lbsWeight219 lbs
Jackson-Wink MMATeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1602
If they lose-16→ 1570
If they win+16→ 1602
If they lose-16→ 1570
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1583 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1598 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ryan JensenWilson Gouveia
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Wilson Gouveia56%
Ryan Jensen 44%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Wilson Gouveia a 56% favorite over Ryan Jensen in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Ryan Jensen's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1586 vs 1586), separated by just 0 points.
Wilson Gouveia enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Ryan Jensen finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Wilson Gouveia 93%.
Ryan Jensen and Wilson Gouveia share 1 common opponent: Jason MacDonald.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.