Combat Edge Intelligence

Ryan McGilivray vs Shamar Bailey

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

0-0-0Record16-11-0
TBDDivisionWelterweight
TBDHeight5'8"
TBDReachTBD
TBDWeight170 lbs
TBDTeamSparta Indy

What's at stake

Shamar Bailey is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Ryan McGilivray carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Ryan McGilivrayNow 1482
If they win+29→ 1511
If they lose-19→ 1463
Shamar BaileyNow 1550
If they win+10→ 1560
If they lose-14→ 1536

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1596 · 1 fightsPre-fight Elo1516 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.27
Sig. strikes / min
1.56
21%
Strike accuracy
20%
2.20
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.91
52%
Strike defense
70%
0
Takedown avg.
1.50
0%
Takedown accuracy
33%
44%
Takedown defense
38%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Ryan McGilivrayShamar Bailey
150015501600201220132014

Win method breakdown

0 (0%)
KO/TKO
5 (33%)
0 (0%)
Submission
3 (20%)
0 (0%)
Decision
7 (47%)

Combat Edge model read

Shamar Bailey52%
Ryan McGilivray 48%Elo baseline: 60%

The Combat Edge model makes Shamar Bailey a 52% favorite over Ryan McGilivray in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).

Shamar Bailey holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1550 to 1482, a 68-point edge.

Shamar Bailey enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Shamar Bailey 53%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.