Ryan Spann vs Shamil Gaziev
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-11-0Record15-3-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'5"Height6'3"
79"Reach78"
205 lbsWeight261 lbs
Fortis MMATeamKHK MMA Team· 1684 avg Elo · 7 rated
What's at stake
Shamil Gaziev is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Ryan Spann carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1723
If they lose-11→ 1699
If they win+15→ 1745
If they lose-17→ 1713
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1675 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1650 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ryan SpannShamil Gaziev
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Shamil Gaziev60%
Ryan Spann 40%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Shamil Gaziev a 60% favorite over Ryan Spann in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Shamil Gaziev holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1730 to 1710, a 20-point edge.
Ryan Spann enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Ryan Spann finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Shamil Gaziev 87%.
Ryan Spann and Shamil Gaziev share 1 common opponent: Waldo Cortes-Acosta.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.