Ryo Chonan vs TJ Grant
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
22-13-0Record21-5-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'10"
TBDReachTBD
169 lbsWeight155 lbs
Tribe Tokyo MMATeamFit Plus
What's at stake
Ryo Chonan is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — TJ Grant carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1684
If they lose-13→ 1660
If they win+17→ 1670
If they lose-15→ 1638
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1538 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1648 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ryo ChonanTJ Grant
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
TJ Grant69%
Ryo Chonan 31%Elo baseline: 47%
The Combat Edge model makes TJ Grant a 69% favorite over Ryo Chonan in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Ryo Chonan's way (47%).
Ryo Chonan holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1673 to 1653, a 20-point edge.
Ryo Chonan enters on a 2-fight win streak.
TJ Grant enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Ryo Chonan finishes 41% of wins inside the distance, TJ Grant 81%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.