Ryo Sakai vs Tim Lajcik
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-16-0Record7-6-1
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
5'11"Height6'1"
-ReachTBD
246 lbsWeight225 lbs
Ranger GymTeamGladiators Training Academy
What's at stake
Tim Lajcik is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Ryo Sakai carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1504
If they lose-11→ 1480
If they win+15→ 1524
If they lose-17→ 1492
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1527 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1535 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ryo SakaiTim Lajcik
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ryo Sakai60%
Tim Lajcik 40%Elo baseline: 47%
The Combat Edge model makes Ryo Sakai a 60% favorite over Tim Lajcik in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Tim Lajcik's way (47%).
Tim Lajcik holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1509 to 1491, a 18-point edge.
Ryo Sakai enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Tim Lajcik enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Ryo Sakai finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Tim Lajcik 86%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.