Ryo Sakai vs Tsuyoshi Sudario
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-15-0Record9-4-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
5'11"Height6'3"
-Reach76"
246 lbsWeight261 lbs
Ranger GymTeamHi Rollers Entertainment
What's at stake
Tsuyoshi Sudario is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Ryo Sakai carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+16→ 1507
If they lose-8→ 1483
If they win+10→ 1627
If they lose-22→ 1595
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1527 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1530 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ryo SakaiTsuyoshi Sudario
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Tsuyoshi Sudario92%
Ryo Sakai 8%Elo baseline: 67%
The Combat Edge model makes Tsuyoshi Sudario a 92% favorite over Ryo Sakai in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (67%).
Tsuyoshi Sudario holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1617 to 1491, a 126-point edge.
Ryo Sakai enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Ryo Sakai finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Tsuyoshi Sudario 89%.
Ryo Sakai and Tsuyoshi Sudario share 1 common opponent: Roque Martinez.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.