Ryo Sakai vs Valentijn Overeem
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-16-0Record30-32-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
5'11"Height6'3"
-ReachTBD
246 lbsWeight234 lbs
Ranger GymTeamGolden Glory
What's at stake
Ryo Sakai is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Valentijn Overeem carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1502
If they lose-13→ 1478
If they win+13→ 1474
If they lose-11→ 1450
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1527 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1535 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ryo SakaiValentijn Overeem
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ryo Sakai83%
Valentijn Overeem 17%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Ryo Sakai a 83% favorite over Valentijn Overeem in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Ryo Sakai holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1491 to 1461, a 30-point edge.
Ryo Sakai enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Valentijn Overeem enters on a 6-fight loss streak.
Ryo Sakai finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Valentijn Overeem 97%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.