Combat Edge Intelligence

Sage Northcutt vs Thibault Gouti

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

12-3-0Record17-7-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'10"
71,5"Reach41,5"
170 lbsWeight158 lbs
Team Alpha MaleTeamJackson-Wink MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Sage NorthcuttNow 1664
If they win+15→ 1679
If they lose-17→ 1647
Thibault GoutiNow 1651
If they win+17→ 1668
If they lose-15→ 1636

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1608 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1587 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.58
Sig. strikes / min
3.68
52%
Strike accuracy
34%
1.96
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.64
59%
Strike defense
50%
1.81
Takedown avg.
1.23
35%
Takedown accuracy
80%
42%
Takedown defense
83%
0.60
Submission avg.
0.31

Trajectory

Sage NorthcuttThibault Gouti
1650202220232024

Win method breakdown

5 (42%)
KO/TKO
7 (41%)
4 (33%)
Submission
6 (35%)
3 (25%)
Decision
4 (24%)

Combat Edge model read

Sage Northcutt72%
Thibault Gouti 28%Elo baseline: 52%

The Combat Edge model makes Sage Northcutt a 72% favorite over Thibault Gouti in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1664 vs 1651), separated by just 13 points.

Sage Northcutt finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Thibault Gouti 76%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.