Saimon Oliveira vs Tony Gravely
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-7-0Record23-9-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'8"Height5'5"
72"Reach69"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Astra Fight Team· 1581 avg Elo · 7 ratedTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Tony Gravely is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Saimon Oliveira carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+20→ 1614
If they lose-12→ 1582
If they win+9→ 1693
If they lose-15→ 1669
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1587 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1649 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Saimon OliveiraTony Gravely
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Tony Gravely62%
Saimon Oliveira 38%Elo baseline: 63%
The Combat Edge model makes Tony Gravely a 62% favorite over Saimon Oliveira in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).
Tony Gravely holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1684 to 1594, a 90-point edge.
Saimon Oliveira enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Tony Gravely enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Saimon Oliveira finishes 89% of wins inside the distance, Tony Gravely 57%.
Saimon Oliveira carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.