Combat Edge Intelligence

Saimon Oliveira vs Tony Gravely

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

18-7-0Record23-9-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'8"Height5'5"
72"Reach69"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Astra Fight TeamTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

Tony Gravely is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Saimon Oliveira carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Saimon OliveiraNow 1595
If they win+20→ 1615
If they lose-12→ 1583
Tony GravelyNow 1684
If they win+9→ 1693
If they lose-15→ 1669

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1589 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1650 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.67
Sig. strikes / min
3.82
40%
Strike accuracy
48%
4.13
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.47
47%
Strike defense
44%
1.07
Takedown avg.
5.40
25%
Takedown accuracy
42%
39%
Takedown defense
52%
1.43
Submission avg.
0.30

Trajectory

Saimon OliveiraTony Gravely
16001650170020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

5 (28%)
KO/TKO
10 (43%)
11 (61%)
Submission
3 (13%)
2 (11%)
Decision
10 (43%)

Combat Edge model read

Tony Gravely72%
Saimon Oliveira 28%Elo baseline: 63%

The Combat Edge model makes Tony Gravely a 72% favorite over Saimon Oliveira in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).

Tony Gravely holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1684 to 1595, a 89-point edge.

Saimon Oliveira enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Tony Gravely enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Saimon Oliveira finishes 89% of wins inside the distance, Tony Gravely 57%.

Saimon Oliveira carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.