Saimon Oliveira vs Tony Kelley
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-7-0Record8-3-0
BantamweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'8"Height5'10"
72"Reach70"
135 lbsWeight138 lbs
Astra Fight TeamTeamTeam Alpha Male
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1611
If they lose-16→ 1579
If they win+24→ 1618
If they lose-24→ 1570
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1589 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1568 · 9 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Saimon OliveiraTony Kelley
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Tony Kelley52%
Saimon Oliveira 48%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Tony Kelley a 52% favorite over Saimon Oliveira in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Saimon Oliveira's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1595 vs 1594), separated by just 1 points.
Saimon Oliveira enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Saimon Oliveira finishes 89% of wins inside the distance, Tony Kelley 75%.
Saimon Oliveira carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.