Sam Alvey vs Tom Watson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
34-18-1Record17-9-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height6'1"
75"ReachTBD
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Team QuestTeamJackson-Wink MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1651
If they lose-12→ 1627
If they win+12→ 1647
If they lose-12→ 1623
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1663 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1650 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Sam AlveyTom Watson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Sam Alvey63%
Tom Watson 37%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Sam Alvey a 63% favorite over Tom Watson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1639 vs 1635), separated by just 4 points.
Tom Watson enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Sam Alvey finishes 68% of wins inside the distance, Tom Watson 53%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.