Sam Alvey vs Wellington Turman
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
34-18-1Record18-8-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
6'2"Height6'0"
75"Reach 72"
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
Team QuestTeamTeixeira MMA & Fitness
What's at stake
Sam Alvey is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Wellington Turman carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1651
If they lose-13→ 1627
If they win+13→ 1630
If they lose-11→ 1606
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1664 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1671 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Sam AlveyWellington Turman
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Wellington Turman68%
Sam Alvey 32%Elo baseline: 47%
The Combat Edge model makes Wellington Turman a 68% favorite over Sam Alvey in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Sam Alvey's way (47%).
Sam Alvey holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1640 to 1617, a 23-point edge.
Wellington Turman enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Sam Alvey finishes 68% of wins inside the distance, Wellington Turman 67%.
Sam Alvey carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.