Sam Patterson vs Santiago Ponzinibbio
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-3-1Record30-10-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'4"Height6'0"
78"Reach73″
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Team CrossfaceTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Sam Patterson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Santiago Ponzinibbio carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1760
If they lose-18→ 1728
If they win+14→ 1712
If they lose-10→ 1688
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1640 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1719 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Sam PattersonSantiago Ponzinibbio
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Sam Patterson64%
Santiago Ponzinibbio 36%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Sam Patterson a 64% favorite over Santiago Ponzinibbio in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Sam Patterson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1746 to 1698, a 48-point edge.
Santiago Ponzinibbio enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Sam Patterson finishes 93% of wins inside the distance, Santiago Ponzinibbio 77%.
Sam Patterson carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.