Combat Edge Intelligence

Sam Patterson vs Santiago Ponzinibbio

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

14-3-1Record30-9-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'4"Height6'0"
78"Reach73″
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Team CrossfaceTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

Sam Patterson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Santiago Ponzinibbio carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Sam PattersonNow 1729
If they win+15→ 1744
If they lose-17→ 1712
Santiago PonzinibbioNow 1712
If they win+13→ 1725
If they lose-11→ 1701

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1621 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1721 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.62
Sig. strikes / min
4.78
38%
Strike accuracy
42%
3.06
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.68
50%
Strike defense
62%
0.82
Takedown avg.
0.60
0%
Takedown accuracy
12%
33%
Takedown defense
71%
1.64
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Sam PattersonSantiago Ponzinibbio
170017502023202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (43%)
KO/TKO
17 (57%)
7 (50%)
Submission
6 (20%)
1 (7%)
Decision
7 (23%)

Combat Edge model read

Sam Patterson71%
Santiago Ponzinibbio 29%Elo baseline: 52%

The Combat Edge model makes Sam Patterson a 71% favorite over Santiago Ponzinibbio in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).

Sam Patterson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1729 to 1712, a 17-point edge.

Sam Patterson finishes 93% of wins inside the distance, Santiago Ponzinibbio 77%.

Sam Patterson carries a 5-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.