Combat Edge Intelligence

Sam Patterson vs Trey Waters

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →
Trey Waters
us

Trey Waters

“The Truth”

10-2-0WelterweightPFL

1680Good

Tale of the tape

15-3-1Record10-2-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'4"Height6'5"
78"Reach77"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Team CrossfaceTeamLudus MMA

What's at stake

Sam Patterson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Trey Waters carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Sam PattersonNow 1746
If they win+13→ 1759
If they lose-19→ 1727
Trey WatersNow 1680
If they win+19→ 1699
If they lose-13→ 1667

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1639 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1582 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.62
Sig. strikes / min
6.39
38%
Strike accuracy
44%
3.06
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.83
50%
Strike defense
56%
0.82
Takedown avg.
0.40
0%
Takedown accuracy
33%
33%
Takedown defense
86%
1.64
Submission avg.
0.81

Trajectory

Sam PattersonTrey Waters
16501700175020252026

Win method breakdown

7 (47%)
KO/TKO
4 (40%)
7 (47%)
Submission
3 (30%)
1 (7%)
Decision
3 (30%)

Combat Edge model read

Sam Patterson61%
Trey Waters 39%Elo baseline: 59%

The Combat Edge model makes Sam Patterson a 61% favorite over Trey Waters in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).

Sam Patterson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1746 to 1680, a 66-point edge.

Sam Patterson finishes 93% of wins inside the distance, Trey Waters 70%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.