Combat Edge Intelligence

Sam Patterson vs Trey Waters

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Trey Waters
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Trey Waters

“The Truth”

9-2-0WelterweightUFC

1679Good

Tale of the tape

14-3-1Record9-2-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'4"Height6'5"
78"Reach77"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Team CrossfaceTeamLudus MMA

What's at stake

Sam Patterson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Trey Waters carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Sam PattersonNow 1729
If they win+14→ 1743
If they lose-18→ 1711
Trey WatersNow 1679
If they win+18→ 1697
If they lose-14→ 1665

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1621 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1587 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.89
Sig. strikes / min
6.43
44%
Strike accuracy
44%
3.93
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.61
50%
Strike defense
57%
1.39
Takedown avg.
0.44
100%
Takedown accuracy
33%
33%
Takedown defense
86%
2.78
Submission avg.
0.88

Trajectory

Sam PattersonTrey Waters
165017001750202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (43%)
KO/TKO
3 (33%)
7 (50%)
Submission
3 (33%)
1 (7%)
Decision
3 (33%)

Combat Edge model read

Sam Patterson64%
Trey Waters 36%Elo baseline: 57%

The Combat Edge model makes Sam Patterson a 64% favorite over Trey Waters in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).

Sam Patterson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1729 to 1679, a 50-point edge.

Sam Patterson finishes 93% of wins inside the distance, Trey Waters 67%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.