Combat Edge Intelligence

Sam Patterson vs Yanal Ashmouz

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

14-3-1Record8-2-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
6'4"Height5'9"
78"Reach68"
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
Team CrossfaceTeamK Dojo Warrior Tribe

What's at stake

Sam Patterson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Yanal Ashmouz carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Sam PattersonNow 1729
If they win+12→ 1741
If they lose-20→ 1709
Yanal AshmouzNow 1635
If they win+30→ 1665
If they lose-18→ 1617

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1621 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1578 · 9 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.89
Sig. strikes / min
2.94
44%
Strike accuracy
50%
3.93
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.54
50%
Strike defense
56%
1.39
Takedown avg.
4.80
100%
Takedown accuracy
50%
33%
Takedown defense
60%
2.78
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Sam PattersonYanal Ashmouz
165017001750202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (43%)
KO/TKO
4 (50%)
7 (50%)
Submission
2 (25%)
1 (7%)
Decision
2 (25%)

Combat Edge model read

Sam Patterson77%
Yanal Ashmouz 23%Elo baseline: 63%

The Combat Edge model makes Sam Patterson a 77% favorite over Yanal Ashmouz in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).

Sam Patterson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1729 to 1635, a 94-point edge.

Sam Patterson finishes 93% of wins inside the distance, Yanal Ashmouz 75%.

Sam Patterson carries a 10-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.