Combat Edge Intelligence

Sam Patterson vs Yanal Ashmouz

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

15-3-1Record8-2-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
6'4"Height5'9"
78"Reach68"
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
Team CrossfaceTeamK Dojo Warrior Tribe

What's at stake

Sam Patterson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Yanal Ashmouz carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Sam PattersonNow 1746
If they win+11→ 1757
If they lose-21→ 1725
Yanal AshmouzNow 1635
If they win+31→ 1666
If they lose-17→ 1618

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1639 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1578 · 9 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.62
Sig. strikes / min
2.94
38%
Strike accuracy
50%
3.06
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.54
50%
Strike defense
56%
0.82
Takedown avg.
4.80
0%
Takedown accuracy
50%
33%
Takedown defense
60%
1.64
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Sam PattersonYanal Ashmouz
165017001750202420252026

Win method breakdown

7 (47%)
KO/TKO
4 (50%)
7 (47%)
Submission
2 (25%)
1 (7%)
Decision
2 (25%)

Combat Edge model read

Sam Patterson87%
Yanal Ashmouz 13%Elo baseline: 65%

The Combat Edge model makes Sam Patterson a 87% favorite over Yanal Ashmouz in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (65%).

Sam Patterson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1746 to 1635, a 111-point edge.

Sam Patterson finishes 93% of wins inside the distance, Yanal Ashmouz 75%.

Sam Patterson carries a 10-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.