Combat Edge Intelligence

Sam Sicilia vs Yaotzin Meza

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

18-11-0Record23-11-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'8"Height5'9"
67,0"Reach39,0"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
SikjitsuTeamMMA Lab

What's at stake

Yaotzin Meza is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Sam Sicilia carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Sam SiciliaNow 1574
If they win+13→ 1587
If they lose-11→ 1563
Yaotzin MezaNow 1614
If they win+11→ 1625
If they lose-13→ 1601

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1604 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1567 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.46
Sig. strikes / min
1.43
34%
Strike accuracy
41%
3.55
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.62
59%
Strike defense
65%
1.45
Takedown avg.
1.06
43%
Takedown accuracy
20%
70%
Takedown defense
18%
0.87
Submission avg.
1.42

Trajectory

Sam SiciliaYaotzin Meza
1550160020172018201920202021

Win method breakdown

9 (50%)
KO/TKO
5 (22%)
4 (22%)
Submission
9 (39%)
5 (28%)
Decision
9 (39%)

Combat Edge model read

Yaotzin Meza53%
Sam Sicilia 47%Elo baseline: 56%

The Combat Edge model makes Yaotzin Meza a 53% favorite over Sam Sicilia in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).

Yaotzin Meza holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1614 to 1574, a 40-point edge.

Sam Sicilia finishes 72% of wins inside the distance, Yaotzin Meza 61%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.